by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2022 10:12:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

This is the third look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, and maybe a pickup in new listings. So far, most of the increase in inventory has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates - but we need to keep an eye on new listings too.

On a national basis, we saw record low inventory levels over the Winter. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom seasonally until early April. This year inventory bottomed in February (normal seasonal timing), and recent data from Altos Research and Realtor.com, indicate active inventory was up year-over-year in May. I expect the local market reports will show inventory up year-over-year in May too.
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And a table of May sales. Sales in these areas were down 5.8% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). There was one extra business day in May 2022 compared to May 2021, so the Seasonally Adjusted headline number will likely show a larger decline than 5.8%.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May existing home sales on Tuesday, June 21, 2022, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report “seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in May, down 4.6% from April’s preliminary pace and down 9.6% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.”

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