by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 10:11:00 AM

From WardsAuto: June U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on May; Stay Softer than January-April (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

"If the June forecast holds firm, volume will rise in Q2 from Q1, but the quarter will end at a 13.5-million-unit annualized rate, a drop from January-March’s 14.1 million ..."

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for June (Red).

The Wards forecast of 13.4 million SAAR, would be up about 5% from last month, and down 14% from a year ago (sales were starting to weaken in June 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales is usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing).  However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.