by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP, and Personal Income and Outlays for May.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales, and April Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, June 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, June 28th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 21.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Wednesday, June 29th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2022 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.5% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 1.5% decrease.

----- Thursday, June 30th -----
Early: Census Bureau to Release Vintage 2021 Population Estimates

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 230 thousand up from 229 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2022. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 6.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

----- Friday, July 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.0, down from 56.1 in May. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

Late in the day: Light vehicle sales for June.

The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 13.6 million SAAR in June, up from 12.7 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

Wards Auto is forecasting sales of 13.3 million SAAR in June.