by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2022 11:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

A brief excerpt:

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, and maybe a pickup in new listings. So far, most of the increase in inventory has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates - but we need to keep an eye on new listings too.

We are also seeing a sharp decline in closings in June, and this might be due to buyers cancelling escrow because of the increase in mortgage rates. Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in June.

On cancellations, Lily Katz and Ben Walzer at Redfin wrote yesterday: The Deal Is Off: Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic

Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/