by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2022 03:42:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in June, down 5.4% from May’s preliminary pace and down 14.2% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace.
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CR Notes:

With a new holiday this year in June, Juneteenth, it is possible the seasonal adjustment will be off a little. However, the local markets I track suggest a significant year-over-year decline in NSA sales for June.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is schedule to release June existing home sales on Wednesday, July 20th at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.40 million SAAR, down from 5.41 million last month. Based on Tom Lawler’s estimate, we should expect a large negative surprise.

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