Goldman June Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in June ... employment surveys and Big Data employment indicators generally weakened in the month, and the Challenger report showed an increase in job cuts—particularly in real estate, autos, and media. ... We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.6%—in line with consensus—reflecting a solid rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.4%.
emphasis added

CR Note: The consensus is for 270 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.