by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2022 03:09:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Will Housing Inventory Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

A brief excerpt:

The next couple of months will be important for housing inventory. Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern and peak in the summer? Or will inventory peak later in the year (like October or November)?

My current outlook on house prices assumes that inventory will continue to increase into the Fall.
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The second graph uses the Altos inventory data and shows the trend comparing to the same week in 2020 and 2019. The dotted red line is the recent trend compared to 2020 - and at the current pace, inventory will be up compared to 2020 in late August. The dashed grey line is comparing to 2019, and based on the current trend, it is possible inventory will be back to 2019 levels by the beginning of 2023.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/