by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2022 10:05:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slipped 1.0% in July

Pending home sales declined for the second consecutive month in July, and for the eighth time in the last nine months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major regions registered month-over-month decreases, though the West notched a minor gain. Year-over-year, all four regions saw double-digit percentage slides, the largest of which occurred in the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slid 1.0% to 89.8 in July. Year-over-year, pending transactions sank 19.9%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"In terms of the current housing cycle, we may be at or close to the bottom in contract signings," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "This month's very modest decline reflects the recent retreat in mortgage rates. Inventories are growing for homes in the upper price ranges, but limited supply at lower price points is hindering transaction activity."
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The Northeast PHSI dipped 1.9% from last month to 79.3, down 15.4% from July 2021. The Midwest index retracted 2.7% to 91.2 in July, a 13.4% decline from a year ago.

The South PHSI decreased 1.1% to 106.6 in July, a pullback of 20.0% from the previous year. The West index increased 2.2% in July to 70.0, down 30.1% from July 2021.
emphasis added

This was less of a decline than expected for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.