by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2022 07:45:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July. Wards Auto estimates sales of 13.35 million SAAR in July 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 2.7% from the June sales rate, and down 9.0% from July 2021. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for July (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  

However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues.  It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in July were below the consensus forecast of 13.5 million SAAR.