by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2022 09:02:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.5%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 6.0% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.8% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, down from 52.2 in August.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 59.5.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	47,112	54,201	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	23,401	25,449	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	343	368	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (better, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.