by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2022 07:30:00 AM

Note: this is a travel day, and posts will be brief.

As of September 16th, inventory was at 552 thousand (7-day average), compared to 547 thousand the prior week.  Inventory was up 0.9% from the previous week. Inventory is down slightly from the 2022 peak of 555 thousand three weeks ago.

Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 26.5% from 436 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 3.7% from 573 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 42.7% from 964 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

j 1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 3.7% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 42.7%).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.