by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 10:51:00 AM
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
More Analysis on August Existing Home Sales
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased Slightly to 4.80 million SAAR in August
Excerpt:
On prices, the NAR reported:There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $389,500, a 7.7% jump from August 2021 ($361,500), as prices ascended in all regions. This marks 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. However, it was the second month in a row that the median sales price retracted after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June, the usual seasonal trend of prices declining after peaking in the early summer.Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).
The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 7.7%. The YoY increase in August was smaller than in July (9.5%) and suggests the Case-Shiller index will slow sharply soon. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 2.4% decline from July to August in the median price was partially seasonal (but the decline over the last two months has been much larger than the usual decline).