by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2022 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 28.8 percent above the revised July rate of 532,000, but is 0.1 percent below the August 2021 estimate of 686,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now at pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in August to 8.1 months from 10.4 months in July.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 461,000. This represents a supply of 8.1 months at the current sales rate."

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In August 2022 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in August.

The all-time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010.

This was well above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.