by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2022 11:15:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow

A brief excerpt:

Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through August 2022 (Apartment List through September 2022).

Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up.
...
The Zillow measure is up 12.3% YoY in August, down from 13.8% YoY in July. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February.

The ApartmentList measure is up 7.5% YoY as of September, down from 9.8% in August. This is down from the peak of 18.0% YoY last November.

Rents are still increasing, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 6.3% YoY in August, from 5.8% YoY in July - and will likely increase further in the coming months.
...
My suspicion is rent increases will slow further over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/