by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2022 08:11:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight: September Prepayments at More Than 20-Year Low on Spiking Interest Rates; Foreclosure Starts Fall 9% from August, Remain 53% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

• Prepayment activity dropped -14.9% to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.57% in September – below the recent record of 0.59% set in January 2019 – to the lowest level since November 2000

• The national delinquency rate inched down -0.2% from August to 2.78%, just 3 basis points above the record low set in May 2022, with the number of past-due mortgages holding relatively steady across the board

• The number of borrowers a single payment past due rose by 1%, while 90-day delinquencies fell -1.5 % in September and are now only 24% above the pre-pandemic serious delinquency rate

• Foreclosure starts fell 9% from August to 18,400 – 53% below pre-pandemic levels – with starts initiated on 3% of serious delinquencies, still less than half the rate of the years leading up to the pandemic

• Active foreclosure inventory held steady in the month at volumes that have remained subdued in early 2022 after the record lows of 2021 due to widespread moratoriums and forbearance protections

• Prepays (SMM) edged up 1.5% for the month, due to calendar-related effects, but are still down by 69% year-over-year as rising rates continue to put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 0.2% in September compared to August and decreased 29% year-over-year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.78% in September, down from 2.79% in August.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process was unchanged in September at 0.35%, from 0.35% in August. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 577,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 50,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Sept 2022	Aug 2022	Sept 2021	Sept 2020
Delinquent	2.78%	2.79%	3.91%	6.66%
In Foreclosure	0.35%	0.35%	0.26%	0.34%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,491,000	1,489,000	2,068,000	3,542,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	185,000	185,000	135,000	181,000
Total Properties	1,677,000	1,674,000	2,203,000	3,722,000