by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2022 01:50:00 PM

From CoStar: STR: Jewish Holiday Shift Leads to Expected US Weekly Hotel Performance Decline

As expected with the Rosh Hashanah holiday, U.S. hotel performance dropped from the previous week and showed mixed comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Oct. 1.

Sept. 25 through Oct. 1, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 66.4% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $149.71 (+15.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $99.36 (+12.9%)

In addition to the Rosh Hashanah impact on business travel and groups in the major markets, there were demand shifts in the southeast region due to Hurricane Ian. ...

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase over the next few weeks during the Fall business travel period, and then decline into the Winter.