by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2022 02:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September; CAR Predicts Home Prices to Decline 8.8% in 2023!

Excerpt:

A few topics from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million in September, up 0.4% from August’s preliminary pace and down 22.0%% from last September’s seasonally adjusted pace.  On an unadjusted basis the YOY % decline in sales was largest in the West, and smallest in the Midwest and Northeast.
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Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 8.0% from last September.

In terms of sales, note that mortgage rates, after reaching slightly over 6 % on June 21, fell back down fell back down to around 5 ¼% on August 1, but have since moved sharply higher to around 7%.  This latest sharp rise will almost certainly result in substantially lower home sales in the last few months of this year.

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