by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2022 10:07:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, down from 46 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Down 10 Straight Months as Housing Market Continues to Weaken

In a further signal that rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market, builder sentiment fell for the 10th straight month in October and traffic of prospective buyers fell to its lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month period in the spring of 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic).

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes dropped eight points in October to 38—half the level it was just six months ago—according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest confidence reading since August 2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

“High mortgage rates approaching 7% have significantly weakened demand, particularly for first-time and first-generation prospective home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable. Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

“This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues. While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers.”
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All three HMI components posted declines in October. Current sales conditions fell nine points to 45, sales expectations in the next six months declined 11 points to 35 and traffic of prospective buyers fell six points to 25.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 48, the Midwest dropped three points to 41, the South fell seven points to 49 and the West posted a seven-point decline to 34.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was well below the consensus forecast, and the lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month drop at the beginning of the pandemic). 

The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 25 (below 50).