by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2022 10:03:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 10.2% in September

Pending home sales trailed off for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% to 79.5 in September. Year-over-year, pending transactions slid by 31.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "The Federal Reserve has had to drastically raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has resulted in far fewer buyers and even fewer sellers."
...
The Northeast PHSI descended 16.2% from last month to 64.2, a decline of 30.1% from September 2021. The Midwest index retracted 8.8% to 80.7 in September, down 26.7% from one year ago.

The South PHSI faded 8.1% to 97.0 in September, a drop of 30.0% from the prior year. The West index slipped by 11.7% in September to 62.7, down 38.7% from September 2021.
emphasis added

This was a much larger decline than expected for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.