by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2022 08:38:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent. Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.4 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

The September PCE price index increased 6.2 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged 6.2 percent YoY in August, and down from 7.0 percent in June.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.1 percent YoY, up from 4.9 percent in August.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and the increase in PCE were both above expectations.

Inflation was close to expectations.