by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, September auto sales and the August trade deficit.

----- Monday, Oct 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 52.2, down from 52.8 in August. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease.

----- Tuesday, Oct 4th -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for August.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in July to 11.239 million from 11.040 million in June.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 4% year-over-year. Quits were up 2% year-over-year.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 13.5 million SAAR, up from 13.2 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Oct 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 205,000 jobs added, up from 132,000 in August.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $68.0 billion in August, from $70.7 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.

----- Thursday, Oct 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 203 thousand from 193 thousand last week.

----- Friday, Oct 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 250,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.

There were 315,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.  However, 30 months after the onset of the current employment recession, all of the jobs have returned.