by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 12:43:00 PM

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Prepayment Activity Hit Record Low in October as Rates Topped 7%; Mortgage Delinquencies Up 4.5% in First Signs of Hurricane Ian Impact

• Prepayments fell 16.5% to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.48%, well below the previous record of 0.55% and the lowest recorded since at least 2000 when Black Knight began reporting the metric

• The national delinquency rate rose 4.5% in October to 2.91% – up 12 basis points since September – driven by a sharp 9.4% rise in 30-day delinquencies

• Florida led the jump in new early delinquencies (+19K) – with the state delinquency rate rising 53 basis points to 3.42% -- giving an initial indication of Hurricane Ian impact

• Loans 60 days past due ticked up 2.9% nationally, while those 90 or more days delinquent saw continued – if modest – improvement, inching down another 1.5% in October

• October’s 19.6K foreclosure starts represented a 7% increase that partly reversed September’s decline, but are still 55% below pre-pandemic levels

• Foreclosure starts were initiated on 4% of existing serious delinquencies in October, up slightly from September but still less than half the rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic

• Active foreclosure inventory held steady as volumes have remained subdued in 2022 due to still historically low foreclosure start levels
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 4.5% in October compared to September and decreased 22% year-over-year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.91% in October, down from 2.78% in September.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in October at 0.35%, from 0.35% in September. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 555,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 48,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Oct 2022	Sept 2022	Oct 2021	Oct 2020
Delinquent	2.91%	2.78%	3.74%	6.44%
In Foreclosure	0.35%	0.35%	0.26%	0.33%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,557,000	1,491,000	1,986,000	3,437,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	186,000	185,000	138,000	178,000
Total Properties	1,743,000	1,677,000	2,125,000	3,616,000