by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 12:43:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

The big story for October existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down further YoY in October as many potential sellers are locked into their current home (low mortgage rate). And active inventory increased sharply YoY.

This is the final look at local markets in October. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

Important: Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Rates increased to around 6% in September and that impacted closed sales in October. In October 30-year mortgage rates jumped to over 7%, and that will negatively impact closed sales in November and December.
...
And a table of October sales. In October, sales were down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) for these markets. ... The NAR reported sales were down 29.5% NSA YoY in October.

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 37%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.
...
More local data coming in December for activity in November! We should expect an even larger YoY sales decline in November and December due to the increase in mortgage rates in September and October.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/