by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2022 12:34:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2023?

A brief excerpt:

The Official Limits will be released On Tuesday, November 29th
...
This graph shows the CLL since 1979. Note that during periods when house prices decline, the CLL is not reduced. The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016, and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing bubble. ...

The adjustment is based on the House Price Index value in Q3 divided by Q3 in the prior year. The FHFA index is a repeat sales index, similar to Case-Shiller.
...
We need the house price data through September 2022 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2023. This quarterly data will be released on November 29th. Currently we only have data for Q2 2022 for the quarterly index (up 17.0% from Q2 2021), however, the Purchase-Only index was up 11.9% through August 2022. Clearly prices have slowed sharply in Q3. Using the purchase index as a guide, and assuming a similar decline in September in the YoY price change - the CLL will increase around 12% in 2023.

Based on an estimated 12% year-over-year house price change, the CLL will be around $725,000 in 2023. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the limit could increase to around $1.08 million.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/