RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 10:12:00 AM
Friday, November 18, 2022
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October
Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines.
Total existing-home sales - completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 28.4% (down from 6.19 million in October 2021).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.22 million units, which was down 0.8% from both September and one year ago (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months in October 2021.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in October (4.43million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 28.4% below the October 2021 sales rate.
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.22 million in October from 1.23 million in September.Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2021.
Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in October from 3.1 months in September.
This was slightly above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2021. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in October from 3.1 months in September.
This was slightly above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
