by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2022 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2023 Housing Forecasts

A brief excerpt:

Towards the end of each year, I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

For comparison, new home sales in 2022 will probably be around 640 thousand, down from 771 thousand in 2021.

Total housing starts will be around 1.55 million in 2022, down slightly from 1.60 million in 2021.

Existing home sales will be around 5.1 million in 2022, down from 6.1 million in 2021.

As of September, Case-Shiller house prices were up 10.6% year-over-year, but the year-over-year change is slowing rapidly.
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There is an especially wide range in the forecasts for house prices and shows the difficulties in modeling this housing cycle. My view is house prices will decline in 2023 and will fall 10% or more from peak-to-trough (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/