by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 11:16:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY

A brief excerpt:

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in November.

NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.16 million SAAR for November (the NAR reports this coming Wednesday). The consensus is for the NAR to report 4.20 million. (Lawler has an excellent track record).

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 47.7%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.

In November, sales were down 36.3% in these markets. In October, these same markets were down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in November 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in November 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. And this suggests another significant step down in sales in November!
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More local markets to come!

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