by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2022 10:48:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.09 million SAAR in November

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 129 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 3.5%. The YoY increase in November was the lowest since June 2020. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 2.1% decline in November in the median price was partially seasonal, however the 10.4% decline over the last five months has been much larger than the usual seasonal decline.

It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months - and Case-Shiller will follow.

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