by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2022 09:38:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing, Inflation and Why the Fed Should Consider a Pause

A brief excerpt:

Expectations are the FOMC will announce a 50bp rate increase in the federal funds rate tomorrow and increase the "terminal rate" to 5-5.25%.

However, it appears the Fed is missing the recent sharp slowdown in household formation. The surge in household formation during the pandemic was unrelated to monetary policy (it was mostly due to work-from-home and the pickup in divorces). And the recent slowdown in household formation is also unrelated to monetary policy.

This “dramatic shift” in household formation is leading to Rents Falling Faster than "Seasonality Alone". Since rents are falling - and will likely continue to fall - it probably makes sense to look at inflation ex-shelter for monetary policy over the next several months.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in Core CPI ex-Shelter (blue), and the one month change annualized (red). The year-over-year change was at 5.2% in November, down from 5.9% in October. And the annualized one-month change was negative in both October and November! Core CPI ex-shelter fell at 1.5% annual rate in November.

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