RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2022 10:14:00 AM
Wednesday, December 21, 2022
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.09 million SAAR in November
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November
Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November. Year-over-year, sales dwindled by 35.4% (down from 6.33 million in November 2021).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.14 million units, which was down 6.6% from October, but up 2.7% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, which was identical to October, but up from 2.1 months in November 2021.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in November (4.09 million SAAR) were down 7.7% from the previous month and were 35.4% below the November 2021 sales rate.
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.14 million in November from 1.22 million in October.Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was up 2.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2021.
Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.3 months in November from 3.3 months in October.
This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was up 2.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2021. Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.3 months in November from 3.3 months in October.
This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
