by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2022 02:18:00 PM

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through November 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently inventory is still very low, but still up almost 3-fold from the record low set in February 2022, and up 12% year-over-year.  Prices are up 2.9% YoY (and the YoY change has been mostly trending down).

It is possible that the YoY change will turn negative soon - even with inventory at historically fairly low levels.