Comments on November Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 7.7% year-over-year increase in November

Excerpt:

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for November were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices. September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data.

The MoM decrease in the Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% seasonally adjusted. This was the fifth consecutive MoM decrease, and a slightly larger decrease than in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis (Detroit increased 0.1%). The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in San Francisco (-1.4%), Phoenix (-1.4%) and Las Vegas (-1.2%). San Francisco has fallen 11.9% from the peak in May 2022 and is the first Case-Shiller city with a year-over-year decline (-1.6% year-over-year).
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The November report was mostly for contracts signed in the July through October period - and was likely impacted slightly by the surge in rates in October.

The impact from higher rates in October and November will really show up in the Case-Shiller index over the next several months.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/