by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2023 08:13:00 AM

Altos reports inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Usually inventory bottoms in February; last year, in 2022, inventory bottomed in early March.  It is possible that inventory has already bottomed for the year!

Here are the same week inventory changes for the last five years:

2023: +1.3K

2022: -8.4K 

2021: -22.9K

2020: -25.8K

2019: -2.3K

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of January 13th, inventory was at 473 thousand (7-day average), compared to 471 thousand the prior week.   

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 66.6% compared to the same week in 2022, and down 42.0% compared to the same week in 2019. 

A key will be when inventory starts increasing in 2023 (this might have already happened).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.