by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2023 08:32:00 AM

Altos reports inventory is down 4.0% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of January 6th, inventory was at 471 thousand (7-day average), compared to 491 thousand the prior week.   Inventory has declined sharply seasonally in the winter.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red Dot is for the first week of 2023.  The black line is for 2019.

Inventory was up 61.4% compared to the same week in 2022, and down 42.3% compared to the first week in 2019. 

A key will when inventory starts increasing in 2023 (the bottom is usually in February of each year).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.