by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2023 10:46:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $366,900, an increase of 2.3% from December 2021 ($358,800), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 130 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 2.3%. The YoY increase in December was the lowest since May 2020. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 1.5% decline in December in the median price was partially seasonal, however the 11.3% decline in the median price over the last six months has been much larger than the usual seasonal decline.

It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months - and Case-Shiller will follow.

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