by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2023 01:04:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Net Home Orders and Sales Cancellations of Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders

A brief excerpt:

Note from Bill McBride: The data below via Tom Lawler illustrates the point I’ve made about the Census Bureau overstating sales when cancellation rates are rising.
...
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table of net home orders (gross orders less sales cancellations) of selected publicly-traded home builders for last quarter compared to the comparable quarter of 2021.  (Note:  sales cancellations from some builders are derived from reported cancellation rates, and may be off due to rounding).  Also shown are gross orders, as well as unadjusted new home sales reported by Census.

As the table shows, net orders of these builders last quarter were down 41.3% YOY, sales cancellations were up 58.7%, and gross orders were down 27.5%.   Census preliminary estimates of new home sales last quarter, in contrast, were down 19.3% YOY. 

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/