by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2023 07:48:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Dips in January

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.4% in January to 201.5 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 220.0. In January, the commercial component of the DMI fell 10.0%, and the institutional component receded 4.7%.

“The Dodge Momentum Index weakened in January, after 10 consecutive months of gains. While planning activity slowed, the Index remains elevated, and the volume of projects remains steady,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “After such strong growth in 2022, we expect the Index to work its way back towards historical norms this year, in tandem with weaker economic growth. Overall, levels of planning activity remained comparatively strong over the month — which bodes well for the construction sector.”

Weakness in commercial planning in January was broad-based, with office, warehouse, retail and hotel activity declining. Slower activity in education and amusement projects drove down the institutional portion of the Index, nullifying the impact of gains in healthcare and public planning over the month. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI remains 32% higher than in January 2022. The commercial component was up 40%, and the institutional component was 16% higher.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 201.5 in January, down from 220.0 in December.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction into 2023.