by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 7.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2023.

... The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased across the board last week, pushed higher by market expectations that inflation will persist, thus requiring the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy restrictive for a longer time. After five straight weeks of decreases, the 30-year fixed rate increased by 21 basis points to 6.39 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications decreased for the second time in three weeks because of these higher rates. Refinance borrowers, both rate/term and cash-out, remain on the sidelines as current rates provide little financial incentive to act.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40 percent lower than a year ago. Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.39 percent from 6.18 percent, with points increasing to 0.70 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022.

Five weeks ago, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000, but it has rebounded somewhat as rates declined.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 43% year-over-year unadjusted.  This has increased a little with lower rates but is still near housing bust levels.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).