by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2023 10:07:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 670 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.2 percent above the revised December rate of 625,000, but is 19.4 percent below the January 2022 estimate of 831,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in January to 7.9 months from 8.7 months in December.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 439,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well above expectations of 620 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down, combined. I'll have more later today.