by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2023 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February

A brief excerpt:

The big story for February existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales, and also the rebound from the low level of sales in December and January. Also, active inventory increased sharply YoY, but is still historically low - and new listings are down YoY.

This is the final look at local markets in February. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

First, here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely. The NAR reported sales were down 23.0% NSA YoY in February.
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Note: Even if existing home sales activity bottomed in December (4.03 million SA) and January (4.00 million SA), there are usually two bottoms for housing - the first for activity and the second for prices. See Has Housing "Bottomed"?

My early expectation is we will see a similar YoY sales decline in March as in February, since mortgage rates for contracts signed in January and February were about the same level as contracts that closed in February.

More local data coming in April for activity in March!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/