by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2023 10:03:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.7% in February, up from 47.4% in January. The employment index was at 49.1%, down from 50.6% last month, and the new orders index was at 47.0%, up from 42.5%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. In the last two months, the Manufacturing PMI® has been at its lowest levels since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.5 percent recorded in January. The Production Index reading of 47.3 percent is a 0.7-percentage point decrease compared to January’s figure of 48 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.3 percent, up 6.8 percentage points compared to the January figure of 44.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.1 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the January reading of 43.4 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory, registering 49.1 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from January’s 50.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.6 percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 50.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.9 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than January’s figure of 49.4 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 49.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points above the January reading of 47.8 percent.”
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in February.  This was below the consensus forecast.