by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2023 01:41:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: More Good News for Homebuilders

A brief excerpt:

Last October I wrote: Some "Good News" for Homebuilders

I noted:

[T]he good news for the homebuilders is activity usually picks up quickly following an interest rate induced slowdown (as opposed to following the housing bust when the recovery took many years).

I included the following graph to illustrate this point. The following graph shows new home sales for three periods: 1978-1982, 2005-2020, and current (red). The prior peak in sales is set to 100 (updated through the February New Home sales release).
...
My sense is this downturn will have some similarities to the 1980 period, see: Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/