by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2023 08:30:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. Maybe inventory has finally bottomed seasonally.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 7th, inventory was at 411 thousand (7-day average), compared to 410 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.3%.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 59.1% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 62.2%), and down 50.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 50.8%). 

A key will be when inventory starts increasing in 2023 - maybe this is the beginning.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.