by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2023 08:30:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Maybe inventory has finally bottomed seasonally.  This is the highest inventory level since the week ending March 17th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 21st, inventory was at 414 thousand (7-day average), compared to 405 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 15.6%.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 52.5% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 51.6%), and down 52.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 52.4%). 

A key will be when inventory starts increasing in 2023 - maybe this is the beginning.  If this is the seasonal bottom, it is late in the year (similar timing as 2021).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.