by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2023 06:37:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: Greater Availability, Rising Incentives Lead March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to 9% Gain (pay site).

Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.82 million SAAR in March 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), essentially unchanged from the February sales rate, and up 9.3% from March 2022. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for March (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues.  It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in March were close to the consensus forecast.