by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2023 10:18:00 AM

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2023.

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2023 were 6.4 percent for rental housing and 0.8 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the first quarter 2022 (5.8 percent) and higher than the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (5.8 percent).

The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.8 percent was virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2022 (0.8 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (0.8 percent).

The homeownership rate of 66.0 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2022 (65.4 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2022 (65.9 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The Census Bureau is scheduled to released 2020 decennial Census homeownership data on May 25th, 2023.

The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 66.0% in Q1, from 66.0% in Q4.

The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.

The HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 0.8% in Q1 from 0.8% in Q4.

Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate increased to 6.4% in Q1 from 5.8% in Q4.  

The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.