by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2023 11:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6% to 6.5% range in March and April - compared to the 4% to 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in May.
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In May, sales in these markets were down 16.2%. In April, these same markets were down 23.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in April for these markets, however seasonally adjusted, it is closer since there was one less selling day in April this year than in April 2022, but the same number of selling days each year in May.

Another factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis.

If sales were steady all year, the YoY decline would still decrease!
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Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/