by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 23, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for Juneteenth holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate changes varied across loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing slightly to 6.75 percent. The spread between the jumbo and conforming rates widened to 16 basis points, the third week in a row that the jumbo rate was higher than the conforming rate. To put this into perspective, from May 2022 to May 2023, the jumbo rate averaged around 30 basis points less than the conforming rate,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications increased for the third consecutive week to the highest level of activity since early May but remained more than 20 percent lower than year ago levels. New home sales have been driving purchase activity in recent months as buyers look for options beyond the existing-home market. Existing-home sales continued to be held back by a lack of for-sale inventory as many potential sellers are holding on to their lower-rate mortgages.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.75 percent from 6.73 percent, with points remaining at 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 21% year-over-year unadjusted.  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  This is at the highest level since early May - but close to the lowest level since the mid-'90s!

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.