by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2023 09:54:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

A brief excerpt:

This is the third look at local markets in June. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in April and May - compared to the 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down year-over-year in June.
...
In June, sales in these markets were down 15.3%. In May, these same markets were down 16.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in May for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in June 2022 and June 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. ...

This sample data suggests the June existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably below the May sales rate of 4.3 million (SAAR) - and the 22nd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Note: the NAR is scheduled to release June existing home sales next Thursday, July 20th, and the consensus expectation is for the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis, down from 4.30 million in May.

Many more local markets to come!

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