FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Mild Recession; Additional Increases in Fed Funds Rate "Appropriate"

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023. Excerpt:

The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. Real GDP was projected to decelerate in the current quarter and the next one before declining modestly in both the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year. Real GDP growth over 2024 and 2025 was projected to be below the staff's estimate of potential output growth. The unemployment rate was forecast to increase this year, peak next year, and remain near that level through 2025. Current tight resource utilization in both product and labor markets was forecast to ease, with the level of real output moving below the staff's estimate of potential output in 2025 and the unemployment rate rising above the staff's estimate of its natural rate at that time.

The staff's inflation forecast was little revised relative to the previous projection, and supply–demand imbalances in both goods markets and labor markets were still judged to be easing only slowly. On a four-quarter change basis, total PCE price inflation was projected to be 3.0 percent this year, with core inflation at 3.7 percent. Core goods inflation was forecast to move down further this year and then remain subdued. Housing services inflation was considered to have about peaked and was expected to move down over the rest of the year. Core nonhousing services inflation was projected to slow gradually as nominal wage growth eased further. Reflecting the effects of the easing in resource utilization over the projection, core inflation was forecast to slow through next year but remain moderately above 2 percent. With expected declines in consumer energy prices and further moderation in food price inflation, total inflation was projected to run below core inflation this year and the next. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be close to 2 percent.

The staff continued to judge that uncertainty around the baseline projection was considerable and still viewed the risks as being influenced importantly by the potential macroeconomic implications of banking-sector developments, which could end up being more, or less, negative than assumed in the baseline. Given the continued strength in labor market conditions and the resilience of consumer spending, however, the staff saw the possibility of the economy continuing to grow slowly and avoiding a downturn as almost as likely as the mild‑recession baseline. On balance, the staff saw the risks around the baseline inflation forecast as tilted to the upside, as economic scenarios with higher inflation appeared more likely than scenarios with lower inflation and because inflation could continue to be more persistent than expected and inflation expectations could become unanchored after a long period of elevated inflation.
...
In discussing the policy outlook, all participants continued to anticipate that, with inflation still well above the Committee's 2 percent goal and the labor market remaining very tight, maintaining a restrictive stance for monetary policy would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. Almost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate. Most participants observed that uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and inflation remained elevated and that additional information would be valuable for considering the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Many also noted that, after rapidly tightening the stance of monetary policy last year, the Committee had slowed the pace of tightening and that a further moderation in the pace of policy firming was appropriate in order to provide additional time to observe the effects of cumulative tightening and assess their implications for policy. Participants agreed that their policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks. They also emphasized the importance of communicating to the public their data-dependent approach. Most participants observed that postmeeting communications, including the SEP, would help clarify their assessment regarding the stance of monetary policy that is likely to be appropriate to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.

Participants also discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions. Almost all participants stated that, with inflation still well above the Committee's longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, upside risks to the inflation outlook or the possibility that persistently high inflation might cause inflation expectations to become unanchored remained key factors shaping the policy outlook. Even though economic activity had been resilient recently and that the labor market remained strong, some participants commented that there continued to be downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to unemployment. Despite the receding of the stresses in the banking sector, some participants commented that it would be important to monitor whether developments in the banking sector lead to further tightening of credit conditions and weigh on economic activity. Some participants noted concerns about the potential risks stemming from weakness in commercial real estate.
emphasis added